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Summer 2017 Wine Market Report, Part 2: California Cults

Behind Grand Cru Burgundy, California Cults have been the most consistent performers in the first half 2017, increasing in value by an average of 7% over EOY 2016, and by roughly 4% over Q1. That said, market observers have noted a two-year trend of advances in the first half of the year followed by sharp declines in the second half that has caused some investors to lose confidence in the category. In spite of those reports, we believe that the present moment is a propitious time to invest in top tier California wine for several reasons: first, the declines in the latter half of the last two years can be explained in part by the fact that Q3 is a recess period for most of the major auction houses, and also by the fact that an increasing number of scrupulous retailers are declining to ship wine during the hot summer months. Secondly, several critics and sommeliers have compared the recent string of outstanding harvests in Napa Valley to classic vintages like 1994 and 2001, which bodes well for the longevity of the current releases. Finally, we believe that California Cults will ride the overall strength of the 2017 wine market and make a strong showing in Q4, particularly around the holiday season.  With all of this in mind, current vintages to seek out for investment purposes include 2012, 2013, and 2015.  Leading the pack within our own inventory are several 100 Point wines including Lokoya Cabernet Sauvignon Mt. Veeder 2013Colgin IX Estate Proprietary Red 2013, and Scarecrow 2013 in Magnum.  As wines like these increase in scarcity over time, they will also surely increase in value.