Across the pond in Europe, we’ve identified an emerging trend that may have ramifications for American collectors. At present, several merchants in the UK, France, and elsewhere are actively purchasing large tranches of Eurpoean wine from American retailers and auction houses due to the current strength of the Euro with respect to the US Dollar. This pattern threatens to reduce the availability of investment-grade European wines in the United States, a problem that could be further compounded if the President Trump makes good on a threat issued via Twitter on November 13, 2018:

"@realDonaldTrump: On Trade, France makes excellent wine, but so does the U.S. The problem is that France makes it very hard for the U.S. to sell its wines into France, and charges big Tariffs, whereas the U.S. makes it easy for French wines, and charges very small Tariffs. Not fair, must change!"

To be sure, the US does have an uneven relationship with France and the EU where the wine trade is concerned. The US is currently the world’s largest export market for European wine (in 2018, the US absorbed roughly one third or $25bn of EU production), while American wine is far less popular in Europe. As New York Times wine critic Eric Asimov pointed out, however, the actual difference between American and European tariffs on imported wine is relatively minor ($0.11 to $0.29 per bottle entering the EU, versus $0.05 to $0.14 per bottle entering the US), while European nations have a centuries-old tradition of drinking local wines that accounts for this imbalance. Regardless, it is unquestionable that any increase in tariffs would cause a hike in prices on European wines for American merchants and collectors. Likewise, a trade war with the EU could create additional strain for American winemakers who are already fretting over increased tariffs on exports to China. As of writing, however, the market for European wine in the U.S. seems to be holding steady, so we recommend purchasing European wines in the near term while supply and pricing remain within reach.