Sales of California Cults increased dramatically in 2017 and 2018, propelled by a succession of classic North Coast vintages that received high marks from leading critics. In the near future, however, we believe that readers should prepare for a bubble in the market for California Cults for a number of reasons. First, the increased frequency of wildfires and other environmental challenges stemming from climate change have already begun to affect supply (in 2017, for instance, Screaming Eagle chose not to bottle its flagship wine due to smoke taint in its Oakville vineyard). Early reports indicate that quality is highly variable in the 2017 and 2018 vintages, and no one knows precisely how wines affected by smoke taint will evolve over the long term.

In addition to these environmental challenges, the current administration’s hardline stance on immigration threatens to reduce or eliminate a longstanding source of inexpensive labor for the winemaking industry. In effect, immigration restrictions could increase the costs of harvesting and production for many wineries, and those costs will ultimately be borne by consumers. With consistency on a downward trajectory and price increases looming on the horizon, we recommend caution with the new releases from California.